ISLAMABAD TRILATERAL DIALOGUE: CHINA-AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN
Date : 31-12-2014 By : Ismail Umar
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19th-20th October, 2014
Organized by the Pakistan-China Institute
in collaboration with
the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung
Day I - SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19th, 2014
INAUGURAL SESSION
The event commenced with the address of Chairman of the Pakistan-China Institute (PCI), Senator MushahidHussainSayed, in which he stressed the importance of this trilateral dialogue and shared the vision behind this initiative of the PCI. He stated that we live in the Asian century, a time when NATO and the West are retreating from the Middle East. The destinies of China, Afghanistan and Pakistan, he said, are interlinked, and policymakers in the three countries should share their economic visions with each other. He stated that anew world is now opening up for the three countries which is full of challenges, but even greater opportunities, and concluded that the leadership of these three neighbours needed to take the initiative to link the region and bring their respective countries closer together to each other.
Mr. Ronny Heine, Director of Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), stated it was an honor and pleasure for KAS to collaborate with PCI for such an important dialogue,thanking Senator Mushahid Hussain for taking the initiative in organizing a dialogue which is of national interest. He stated that the emerging regional scenario in South Asia, with Pakistan and China playing a pivotal role, as well the policies of the new Afghan administration, would chiefly determine how events unfold in Afghanistan in the near future; and that, therefore,the trilateral dialogue was crucial for the three countries to exchange viewpoints, review the current outlook for Afghanistan, and draw up sustainable and practical recommendations that would serve as solutions to core issues. This, he said,would help to enhance friendly collaboration and maintain peace in the region.
The Ambassador of China to Pakistan H.E. Mr. Sun Weidong,in his address to the audience,lauded the trilateral dialogue as an important platform for the three countries to strengthen communication and understanding, stating it would help build regional peace and stability.China, he said, looks forward to a unified and stable Pakistan and is also an active participant in peaceful reconstruction in Afghanistan.He stressed that the three neighbors should strengthen economic, political and social ties. He highlighted security as a key area of cooperation, and stated China would take every step to assist Pakistan with counter-terrorism efforts.
The Ambassador of Afghanistan to Pakistan H.E. Mr.Janan Mosazai,spoke about the steps that the Afghan government is taking to build confidence amongst its people, highlighting its intention to transform Afghanistan to a country which would serve as a crossroads for trade. The Afghanistan of today is very different from the Afghanistan thirteen years ago, he stated, describing it as a functioning young democracy that had transformed itself from a struggling state to a stable and successful one in the region. The Ambassador stated that China, Afghanistan and Pakistan are actively cooperating at the trilateral and multilateral levels, and confidence-building measures are being implemented through ministerial trilateral dialogues.He concluded that the trilateral dialogue was a unique opportunity for the three countries to build confidence and strengthen cooperation.
Session I: Current Outlook for Afghanistan
The first session of the conference was chaired by Professor Li Xiguang,Director of the Pakistan Study Center at Tsinghua University, Beijing. The first speaker,Dr. Farouq Azam, Chairman of the Movement for Peaceful Transformation of Afghanistan (MPTA),discussed the objectives of the new Afghan government. He shared his view that political changes and ground realities in Afghanistan offered an opportunity to his country and to Pakistan to live in peace and focus their efforts on the economic well being of their people; in this,he emphasized the need for a trust-building process. Speaking on Afghanistan’s internal dynamics, he said apeace mediator was needed to mediate between all warring factions for a comprehensive internal political settlement,taking into confidence the regional powers and the international community. He also stated that the MPTA had a comprehensive plan in this regard that would soon be submitted to the new Afghan president.
The second speaker was eminent scholar and political analyst Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi, who discussed the impact of the changing security environment on Pak-Afghan relations.He said that the two countries could not cooperate in an environment where positive and negative signals emanated simultaneously,noting that while peace and stability are desirable, they would not come automatically; that anew strategy needed to be adopted, and the Cold War mentality, where the neighbor is seen as either a friend or a foe, needed to be abandoned. He discussed the need for Pakistan and Afghanistan to work together for the identification of shared goals and expand avenues of cooperation. He highlighted the decline that would be seen in economic assistance to Afghanistan post 2015as a critical factor in the emerging context. He also emphasized the importance of a regional approach involving China, Afghanistan and Pakistan to resolve various problems and enhance peace and stability in the region.
The third speaker,Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal,Director and Associate Professor of the School of Politics and International Relations at Quaid-e-Azam University,discussed the NATO mission in Afghanistan and it sofficial policies.He stated that NATO was currently undergoing a transformation from a military alliance to a political one. He spoke of NATO’s seeming inability to translate its counterinsurgency strategy into accomplishing its strategic goals, and said NATO members could play an important role in the economy. Dr. Jaspal stated that that political and financial instability had a negative influence on the conditions in Afghanistan, and that without political stability, the present situation would prevail and the declared objectives of NATO will not be fulfilled.
In the question and answer session that followed, a number of areas were touched upon, including confidence building measures for Pak-Afghan cooperation, measures to bring political and economic stability to Pakistan, the need for focusing on soft power as opposed to hard power, and the emphasis on mutual harmonious existence.
Session II: Changing Regional Context
The second session was chaired by Ambassador Khalid Mehmood, chairman of the Instituteof Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI).
Mr. Amir Rana,Director of the Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) and the first speaker, spoke on counter terrorism efforts. He said that the militant movement in Afghanistan had entered a new ideological phase, and its framework needed to be changed internally because of the change in character of the militant groups;he noted that the transformation did not necessarily entail a weakening. He expressed his views stating that the Tehrik-i-Taliban would lose their central position, that Al-Qaeda would hold its position for the short term, and that the IS would gain influence in the region, saying that the nature of violence of any IS-inspired groups would differ from that of the Taliban.
The second speaker,Ms. Li Qingyan, Asst.Research Fellow at the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS) in Beijing,spoke on regional economic connectivity, discussing in detail initiatives such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Silk Road Economic Belt.She emphasized the increasing demand for economic integration between South Asia and Central Asia and discussed the role the CPEC would play in helping to foster economic integration and create greater bilateral trade relations between China and Pakistan. She also identified challenges posed to this cooperation, discussing resistance from extra regional actors, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and the volatile regional security situation.She stressed that overcoming these obstacles would require greater communication on policies so that they favor integration and cooperation. She advocated increasing road connectivity, facilitating trade and people-to-people and cultural exchanges, as well as enhanced economicand social cooperation and integration to tackle the menace of terrorism.
The third speaker,Dr. Muhammad Khan, Head of the department of International Relations at the National Defence University (NDU) in Islamabad, spoke on the regional role played by Russia, India and the Central Asian countries. In the context of the current security situation in Afghanistan, he stated that the Central and South Asian region found itself in a state of uncertainty,with every country trying to secure its own interests, while Russia continued to exert its political and economic importance in the region, and India vied for regional influence.He spoke on the opportunities available in trade and energy cooperation to Central Asia and the potential obstacles faced in realizing them.He concluded that it was critical for Pakistan to garner the support of major stakeholders such as China, Russia and the USAin order to achieve its goals in the South Asian region, and more broadly in Central Asia.
Some of the key themes touched upon in the discussion that followed, included China’s short term and long term regional objectives, China’s desire for and efforts towards fostering lasting regional peace, and the centrality of a peaceful Afghanistan to regional peace.
Day ii - MONDAY, October 20th, 2014
SESSION III: REGIONAL COUNTRIES’ PERCEPTIONS
The third session of the conference began on the second day and was chaired by Dr. Ross Masood Hussain, Chairman of the Strategic Vision Institute (SVI) in Islamabad.
The first speaker was Senator AkramZaki, former Ambassador of Pakistan to China, and he presented China’s perspective on the current situation in the region. He stated that Chinese foreign policy has three main objectives; peace, development, and international cooperation; he also highlighted China’s objective of combating the three main threats facing the region, in the form of terrorism, extremism, and separatism.Speaking on China’s interest in a stable Afghanistan, he discussed Chinese support in terms of aid and resources for reconstruction and economic development, and also touched on the role of Chinese companies that had undertaken a number of infrastructure projects in Afghanistan. On Chinese policy towards Pakistan and Afghanistan, he said it was evolving fromthat of non-interference to one of creative involvement. The Chinese government, he stated, planned to strengthen economic relations and security cooperation, and recognized the need for cordial relations and mutual understanding between Pakistan and Afghanistan for regional stability.
The second speaker, Dr. Ghairat Baheer, an eminent Pakistan-based, Afghan public figure and political analyst,lauded the trilateral dialogue as the best forum to address and resolve regional problems, whether related to politics, economics, or security.He said that Pakistan and Afghanistan share a common destiny, a common culture, and most importantly, a common faith. He added that Afghanistan would like to maintain friendly relations with both China and Pakistan, based on mutual respect and non-interference in each other’s internal affairs. He also stated that Afghanistan’s foreign policy strongly favors China and Pakistan as it dictates that Afghanistan’s neighbors will hold top priority, followed by Muslim nation sand Asian countries, and lastly by the West, including the USA.
The third speaker was Major General Noel Khokar, Director General of the Institute for Strategic Studies, Research and Analysis (ISSRA) at NDU, and he spoke on Pakistan’s perspective.Talking about Pakistan’s current policy of neutrality with respect to Afghanistan, he said it signaled a contentment of sorts with the “friendly to all” factor as compared topast projections related to the quest for“strategic depth”. In this backdrop, he said, the policy did not ipso facto represent a continuum and thus stayed short of a cohesive approach towards the Afghan arena.However, he stated,prevalent policy approaches do not provide a clear-cut view of what is seen as future transnational regional connectivity for trade flows, and that whileit generally affirmed a response to notions about east-west connectivity as a ladder for economic growth and stability, it did not yet offer one.
The Question and Answer session with the audience broached such issues as joint Pak-China developmental projects,including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, strategies to ensure the security and safety of infrastructure investments in them, and the need to prioritize regional security and stability for the developmental projects to go forward smoothly.
Session IV: Trilateral Cooperation on Afghanistan
The fourth session of the conference was chaired by Dr. Davood Moradian, Director General of the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS) in Kabul.
The first speaker,Ambassador Ali SarwarNaqvi, Executive Director of the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), spoke on the issue of securing borders.He citedthe long time border dispute between Pakistan and Afghanistan as the basis of bilateral tensions, mentioning how initiatives over the last 14 years to rectify this issue had never taken root.Speaking on renewed concerns about the unregulated border space, he said that post2014,Pakistan’s central objective would be to secure the border. He advocated operationalizing joint plans to eliminate border safe havens and stated that developingmutual understanding was critical for reducing the space for militant organizations on both sides.
The second speaker, Mr.ImtiazGul,Founder & Executive Director of the Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS),spoke about national reconciliation and dialogue with the Taliban. He said that it was important to contextualize what different stakeholders say about the talks with the Taliban, owing to a large number of conflicting viewpoints on the topic.He stressed that the Afghan government needed to reconcile the different definitions of “Taliban”,guard against other states influencing reconciliation efforts, and not favor any particular party. He concluded that an inclusive approach with all stakeholders was needed, while emphasizing that the Afghans should decide their own fate.
The third speaker, Professor Li Xiguang, spoke on securing regional linkages, discussing the importance of the Silk Road Economic Zone, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and the Central Asian Economic Belt, for efforts towards trilateral cooperation. He stated that the Silk Road greatly increases connectivity between Pakistan and China,connecting the two countries through culture, trade, writers, craftsmen, etc. He emphasized that the most important project between Pakistan and China was the Gwadar Port, which would substantially increase Pak-China trade, accelerate the development process in Pakistan, andalso greatly benefit the Chinese economy.
A discussion with the audience followed, touching on a number of issues, such as the lack of a political and intellectual consensus amongst regional governments, effective border management, and the lack of engagement on part of the international community towards resolving the issue of poppy cultivation and the drug trade.
Session V: Concluding Session
The concluding session was chaired by Senator Mushahid Hussain and included an address by the Guest of Honor Mr. Sartaj Aziz, Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs and National Security, as well as a presentation of policy recommendations by PCI Executive Director Mr. Mustafa HyderSayed.
The first speaker, Ambassador Riaz Khokhar, began the session by lauding the trilateral relationship as absolutely fundamental to peace and security, and stating that the time had come for China to take a more proactive rolein the region. He added that the only way to resolve the issue of mistrust in the region was through such positive initiatives and dialogues. China, he stated, is a friend of Pakistan and Afghanistan and it is working for peaceful coexistence and cooperation in Pakistan. He also stated that if China becomes a member of SAARC, it would provide a great economic boost in the region.
In his address to the audience,Ambassador Rustam Shah Mohmand stressed the need to find the root cause behind theconflict in Afghanistan, which is the major issue facing cooperation among the three countries.The war, he stated, had cost around 1 trillion dollars, seen more than 10,000 attacks occur yearly in the country, and witnessed the rampant trade in drugs. He stressed that Pakistan needed to address the problem of water shortage faced by Pakistan and Afghanistan, further adding that the two countries should collaborate on hydel projects, which could help to generate 8000 MW of electricity. However, he said, it all depended on whether peace would return to the region, for which Pakistan must play a proactive role.
Mr. Mustafa Sayed identified three major challenges facing trilateral cooperation between China, Afghanistan and Pakistan:terrorism, border security, and a trust deficit on the governmental and non-governmental level.He proposed a number of policy recommendations to help counter these pressing challenges, listing them as under:
“A) The series of trilateral dialogues held by the Pakistan-China Institute, initiated in Beijing, China in 2013, is an encouraging step towards future cooperation among China, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The next trilateral dialogue is expected to take place next year (2015) in Kabul, Afghanistan.
B) A joint trilateral counter-terrorism task force should be established among the three neighbors, which should meet quarterly in rotation in each of the three countries to share information and coordinate policy and strategy to combat terrorism.
C) A joint trilateral economic task force should be established for promoting the Central Asian Economic Belt and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, with projects which can be of mutual benefit to the communities along the Corridor as well as peoples of the three countries. A trilateral business council involving the private sector should be established to promote this.
D) Joint trilateral youth summer camps of students from the three countries should assemble by rotation in Gilgit-Baltistanregion in Pakistan, Xinjiang province in China, and the Wakhan region in Afghanistan.
E) A trilateral media conference should be convened annually to promote better communication and understanding among print, electronic and social media of China, Afghanistan and Pakistan, with training workshops and joint reporting initiatives reinforced by regular exchanges between journalists.”
Mr. Sayed’s recommendations were followed by the keynote address ofMr. Sartaj Aziz, who lauded the conferenceas an immensely important platform for trilateral cooperation and for discussing the political and security situation in the region.He stated that the present was a moment of hope for Afghanistan, with its newly elected government and the peaceful transfer of power, and a matter of pride, not only for the Afghans, but also for Pakistanis. He discussed Pakistan’s vision of a stable and secure Afghanistan, terming it a prerequisite for economic development in the region.Mr. Aziz added that both Pakistan and China support the peaceful transition, reconstruction and development in Afghanistan, andare promoting trade through the energy corridor,while mobilizing regional as well as international support for Afghan reconstruction. He further added that China’s policy of peaceful development would play an imperative role in promoting peace and stability in the region.
Following the keynote address, Mr. Ronny Heine gave a vote of thanks to the participants and organizers. Senator Mushahid Hussain then brought the conference to a close,thanking all invitees for contributing to the successful trilateral dialogue.